Thursday, June 4, 2009

Probability



In its most simple definition it is the ratio of favorable occurrences of an event to the ratio of its total potential occurrence. But even statisticians know that it holds true in extremely controlled environments. Choice is an integral part of life. Everyday we are faced with an option that can determine the outcome of our efforts as a success or a failure. Over the years, we have amassed huge data of each and every incident of our lives that at any given period we can pull out a number before we decide. Life has thus become more mechanical, scientific and each day we try to enhance and dictate performance so that we can better measure the pace and direction of our efforts. For what we know; the present, we hang our hats on statistics. We dissect all our actions based on what is favorable and what is not. My question : How much can we rely on these numbers in our day to day life?? Is statistics, the science, our only hope of strategizing against the gigantic task of second guessing the future or is the exercise merely futile when it comes to predicting the “uncontrolled” arena of life.
I think the fact that we base each and every action on a statistic doesn’t in any way guarantee the outcome that we want. It at best just displays how desperate we are to control the turn of eventualities that breathe rhythm in to our life. We can’t just quote some percentage to make us feel in control or believe that we are positively acting to tip the odds in our favor. I agree there are instances when science can predict outcome accurately but it is imperative to understand that these instances are extremely clinical and occur only when the environment is controlled and we know all the elements at play. If there ever were an instance in life where anyone knew all the elements at play then I am sure that person with out hesitation would have been proclaimed God.
Deep inside our hearts, we know that we are not in control. The believers fight this with faith, by the power of prayer; the scientists with discipline and structure, the power of their science. At the end of the day, the only known is that there is a chance for anything to happen, a chance for the improbable to come through (a miracle for the believers and a statistical anomaly for the scientists). We can’t always hang our hats on numbers, on probability, on statistics. Let’s face it whether, we win or loose life goes on, so screw the numbers, screw the odds, live for what you feel deep inside, live for the moment!!!